A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
